Assessing the risk of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense Tropical Race 4 outbreaks in Ecuadorian banana crops using spatial climatic data

The Musaceae family is susceptible to Fusarium wilt (Fw), which considered the most important disease globally, caused by a group of species that includes F. oxysporum f. sp. cubense tropical race 4 (FocTR4). Until recently, FocTR4 was not present in Latin America. However, wilting, chlorosis leaves, and vascular discoloration (typical symptoms Fw) were observed at least hundred Cavendish plants located Colombia, Peru Venezuela 2019, 2021 2022, respectively. Normally, more severe throughout warmer rainy months year. Since Ecuador world's leading exporter bananas, including plantains, this study aimed identify agroclimatic favorability zones for potential incidence country, testing linear models evaluate occurrence relation climatic conditions map zones. Most banana-producing provinces, Guayas, Los Ríos, El Oro, Manabí, Santa Elena, Esmeraldas, presented an estimate ranging from medium-low very high. In Guayas Rios, main Ecuadorian producer provinces high-risk account almost 50%. This information can help make preventive management decisions with greater risk spreading FocTR4.